INTRODUCTION:

Background:

Since ages, humans have observed various pandemics and are being affected by them. The viral outbreaks such as Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, Ebola, Lassa fever, Marburg virus, SARS- CoV, MERS-CoV, Nipah, Zika virus, Rift Valley fever virus etc are some evidences of such catastrophe. Some of these outbreaks viz; H1N1 (2009), Polio (2014), Ebola in West Africa (2014), Zika (2016) and Ebola in Congo (2019) have such influenced on global life. Recently, a novel coronavirus (2019- nCoV), now COVID-19, has emerged in Wuhan, China during December 2019 and outburst over the whole globe.¹

The COVID-19 virus is a new virus linked to the same family of viruses as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and some types of common cold. A large segment of the world population has been affected by it and very high transmission as well as significant mortality rate are responsible for the high potential of COVID-19 to become a pandemic agent^2,3,4 therefore, the WHO declared the COVID-19 as pandemic on 30^th January 2020. Adaptations to human infection, easy way of transmission, and inadequate immunity make the COVID-19 highly contagious. Aviation and other modern transport systems also helped in its quick spreading. The COVID-19 has spread in more than 210 countries and has affected over 16,675,143 people and killed more than 6,57,292 people (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus) on 28^th July 2020. The first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 in India was a student returning from Wuhan, China on 30^th January 2020 through the international travel and explosion ensued to the local population.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, a total of 15, 31, 669 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19, out of which 9, 88, 029 (64.51%) recovered, while 34, 193 (2.23%) deaths are in the India (https://www.mohfw.gov.in/seen on 29^th July, 2020). The mortality rate of COVID-19 in India is almost half of the global rate. Now, COVID-19 spread in almost every part of India. Therefore, health workers, governments as well as the public are needed to co-operate national as well as globally to prevent it from further spread.⁵

Introduction of Corona Virus as Pandemic:

SARS-CoV-2 is a new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously identified in humans. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a family of single-stranded RNA viruses known as coronaviridae, a common type of virus which affects mammals, birds and reptiles.⁶ The coronavirus infection characterized by symptoms of respiratory tract including fever and dry cough, with some patients presenting with respiratory symptoms (e.g. sore throat, nasal congestion, malaise, headache and myalgia) or even breathlessness. In severe cases, the coronavirus can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and death.⁷ The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Chinese researchers have confirmed incubation period of a coronavirus varies as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days.^8,9

Impact of COVID-19:

The Impact of COVID -19 is being visualized in almost all the sectors ie. primary, secondary and tertiary sectors education and the industries such as aviation, pharmaceutical and chemical industry, hospitality etc. To stop the infection as spread by travelling people and through contact, it was advised for to stay at home and banned the travel by flight, train, public transport etc. Subsequently this travel has affected economy of aviation and transportation industry. Hospitality industry is almost on rampage since there were no customers. The prohibition of mass gatherings and lockdown affected every event and entertainment industries. All major sport events including Olympics and football matches have either postpones or cancelled. This sudden economic disturbance caused by COVID-19 is not only destructive to these areas, but also has affected various sector of the economy viz- agriculture, petroleum, education, health care, pharmaceutical industry, tourism etc, because it created demand and supply shocks in almost every area of human endeavor.¹⁰

Impact of Covid-19 in Indian Economy:

Impacts:

The trade impact of the coronavirus epidemic for India is estimated to be about 348 million dollars and the country figures among the top 15 economies most affected, according to a UN report.¹¹ Whereas according to Asian Development Bank (ADB) the Covid-19 outbreak could cost the Indian economy between $387 million and $29.9 billion in personal consumption losses.¹² For India, the trade impact is estimated to be the most for the chemicals sector at 129 million dollars, textiles and apparel at 64million dollars, automotive sector at 34 million dollars, electrical machinery at 12 million dollars, leather products at 13 million dollars, metals and metal products at 27 million dollars and wood products and furniture at 15 million dollars. China has seen a dramatic reduction in its manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) to 37.5, its lowest reading since 2004. This drop implies a 2 % reduction in output on an annual basis.¹³ This has come as a direct consequence of the spread of corona virus (COVID-19). India’s total electronic imports account for 45% of China’s Share in total import to India. Around one-third of machinery and almost two-fifths of organic chemicals that India purchases from the world, come from China. For automotive parts and fertilisers, China’s share in India’s import is more than 25% and around 65 to 70% for active pharmaceutical ingredients.

Impact on Agriculture:

Restrictions of the transportation is resulting as negative impact on 38 billion USD valued exports of the Indian agriculture. The ripening crops viz fruits and vegetables in the farms had been impacted largely due to no allowance of harvesting, going to market yard as well as preventing buyers to buy, resulting in farm wastages. There had been a significant impact on farmer earnings. On the other side, grains, fruits, vegetables, marine products had become either costlier for consumers or perished.

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Impact on Pharmaceutical and Chemical Industry:

Most of the pharmaceutical raw materials and chemicals are imported from China. These plants have been shut down there as well as restrictions on shipments/logistics. It was found that 20% of the production has been impacted due to the disruption in raw material supply. China is a major supplier of Indigo that is required for denim.

Impact on Education Industry:

Most of the Governments around the world have temporarily closed educational institutions in an attempt to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In India too, the government as a part of the nationwide lockdown has closed all educational institutions, as a consequence of which, learners ranging from school going children to postgraduate students, are affected.¹⁴ There is a glaring disadvantage as exams have to be postponed.

Impact on Auto Industry:

Its impact on Indian companies varies and depends upon the extent of the business with China, US and Europe. The business of auto industry in the world is definitely affected. However, current levels of the inventory seem to be sufficient for the Indian industry.

Impact on Foreign Trade:

The data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) database shows China has been India’s largest source of imports since 2004-05. In 2018-19, the latest period for which annual data is available, it had a share of 13.7% in India’s total imports. Any major disruption in the Chinese economy can disrupt these imports and hence both production processes and supply of consumer goods in India.

Effect on Poultry:

The poultry industry including meat and sea food in different parts of the country was hit hard amid rumours that the novel coronavirus can transmitted through consumption of chicken, the prices of which have fallen considerably as a result. About two crore people employed in the poultry industry across the country have been impacted. People were avoiding consumption of meat, fish, chicken, and egg etc. Due to the fall in demand, wholesale price of chicken had dropped by as much as 70 per cent. The seafood export market also looks to be largely impacted due to restricted supply chain movements and reduced port operations. With US and Europe almost shut because of more and more corona cases day by day, the Indian sea food exports to these markets have come under tremendous pressure.

Social Impact, Family dynamics: domestic violence and home video-gaming:

Imposed lockdown and social distancing to prevent spread of COVID-19 have heightened fears of rise in physical as well as emotional domestic violence and sexual abuse.¹⁵ Domestic violence were reported more during the first four phases of the COVID 19. There is total 3,11,477 complaints of domestic violence made by Indian women in 68 days during March 25 to 31st May 2020. But this is just tip of iceberg as more than 80% experienced domestic violence, do not seek any help or report.¹⁶ Recent data released by the National Legal Services Authority (NALSA) suggest that the nationwide lockdown has led to a rapid increase in cases of domestic violence. The data, which is categorized according to cases in different states, suggest that Uttarakhand recorded the highest number of domestic violence cases in the last two months of lockdown. Haryana ranks on number two and the national capital Delhi on number three.¹⁷

In addition, a significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been seen within the video-gaming industry. With many individuals self-isolating and/or remaining home under strict governmental regulations, online gaming has seen the emergence of record numbers of players, which has facilitated a boost in revenue for many companies.¹⁸ Conversely, negative impacts include cancellation of the annual and major trade event E3 2020, alongside the rescheduling and/or cancellation of popular Esport leagues.¹⁹

DISCUSSION:

The corona virus and its different species had been affecting the world previous occasion also Earlier coronavirus outbreaks include Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), first reported in Saudi Arabia in September 2012 infected around 2,500 people and led to more than 850 deaths, followed by Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), identified in southern China in 2003 which infected more than 8, 000 people and resulted in nearly 800 deaths.^20,21 The case fatality rates for these conditions were 35% and 10%, respectively.

According to WTO, world trade is expected to fall by between 13% and 32% in 2020 due to COVID 19 pandemic which disturbed normal economic activity. Share of Indian export in the trade and production has negative consequences on the business and households. n-CoV had affected the manufacturing firms and their supply chain over the world. COVID-19 is affecting our supply chains and manufacturing operations daily and forced thousands of industries to throttle down or shut down their assembly lines temporarily in the U.S and Europe and now in the developing nations like India.²²

There are three impact areas i.e. Workforce, Products and Costs, which are majorly affected due to COVID-19. Due to lockdown the workforce of many industries have displaced therefore the working of these industries have been compromised to meet the customer demands and to regain the normal working plan and environment. There existed disruption in supply chain in entire country due to less supply. Suppliers are at risk to lose their market value and share as clients are now seeing the other options when they are not receiving the good products or on time. There has been increase in the costs of the products due to increase in the shipping charges of products and industries are now also meeting with their financial objectives

The huge uncertainty and fall in market has led to double attack on business by disturbed entire cycle of production chain and demand. Tourism, Transportation, Hospitality and Aviation are the major sectors that are facing maximum loss in the present crises. Tourism that account for 9% of GDP and Aviation contributes around 2.4% of GDP have severely impacted and these sectors include employees around 42.7 million of people.²³ The travel and transport services are suspended in lockdown across the country thus slowdown in economic activities. It is accounted for a loss of $4.5 billion every day of the lockdown. Auto sector contributes 10% of GDP and employee around 40 million of people. The demand in auto sector is declining continuously, consequently marginal firms and other industries has forced to shut down.²⁴ Closing of cinema halls and complexes, shopping malls etc has affected the retail sector too and also to the consumption pattern of consumer in terms of essentials and luxury goods. The consumption pattern of consumer has impacted and has shown a downfall due to fall in income and lost jobs especially to the daily wage earners. Several marginal firms in the supply side go for the shutdown during imposed lockdown. India being the highest exporter of raw material and import source of goods that are required for their intermediate and final goods are on pause now due to the delay in supply of goods. Various sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, electronics and chemical products etc are facing a shortage of required component.²⁵ India imports about 85% of active pharmaceuticals ingredients (API) and 55% of electronics from china and due to the factor there is a possibility of shortage in availability and thus prices may go on hike. Due to the lockdown and global pandemic the business is hampering with the production cycle that will further affect the investments.

The impact of COVID-19 has been tremendous on International Trade, the government may look for the countermeasure for the indigenous production and to reduce the dependency ratio on a single particular country. This will start boosting the production from domestic industries and reduce the trade deficit. For the April-February period, India’s current fiscal exports have dropped by 1.5% to 292.91 billion. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), India’s trade impact is about to be 348 million dollars. India stood in among 15 most affected economies due to fall in the production especially in china that is disturbing the entire trade pattern of world. For India, the estimated trade impact to be most on chemical sector at 129 million dollars, textiles and apparel at 64 million dollars, automotive sector at 34 million dollars, electrical machinery at 12 million dollars, leather products at 13 million dollars, , metal and metal products at 13 million dollars and wood products and furniture at 15 million dollars. The UN economist has announced drop by of USD 50 billion drop in manufacturing exports around worldwide. India majorly export 7500 commodities to 190 countries and import around 6000 commodities from 140 countries. India share its trade surplus with USA, UAE, and Bangladesh and have trade deficit with China, Switzerland, Saudi Arab.²⁶

Therefore, revitalize the education sector the government has come up with e-learning program. Many ed-tech firms have tried to leverage the occasion by offering free online classes or attractive discounts on e-learning modules. These measures have been met with overwhelming response by students with some startups witnessing as high as 25% uptick in e-learning.¹⁴

The experts have suggested that the need right now should be more wired to be ‘healthy’ internally. They emphasize on the demand inside the economy to be captured. “First the demand needs to be fixed from a domestic standpoint. Exports will happen when countries open up to import.

Our Hon’ble Prime Minister has given strongly advocated for the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ concept and to utilize the maximum of indigenous technology in the revival phase. We must focus on reducing our imports and increasing our exports in coming times. It should be on increasing merchandise and services exports mainly in organic and inorganic chemicals (pharmaceuticals), PPE kits, sanitizers and masks. Demand for ventilators and other medical devices is also expected to increase.

CONCLUSION:

By the time of fears and collapse in economy as well as social discrimination prevails, it’s time to be patient in new normal condition which is in reviving stage and there is felt need for strong decision for business in each sector with safety of employees and policy makers. Immediate relief measures need to be implemented and adjusted. Medium and longer term planning is needed to re-balance and re-energise the economy following this crisis. There is need to fight collectively with social stigma of COVID -19. An extensive socioeconomic plan for development and to encourage entrepreneurship in the sector also needed. The governments, private players and financial institutions need to re-assess and re-evaluate such policies and priorities constantly and ensure the normalcy. Since every cloud has silver lining, we may turn this pandemic into opportunity, by focusing on our domestic market, facilitative measures for increasing our PMI (Purchase Manager Index) and full utilization of indigenous technology to Grab the market which has become more porous and open after anti-china wave worldwide.

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Received on 02.08.2020 Modified on 28.08.2020

Asian J. Research Chem. 2020; 13(6):497-501.

DOI: 10.5958/0974-4150.2020.00088.7